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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L18701, doi:10.1029/2008GL034864, 2008

How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006

Judith L. Lean

Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D. C., USA


David H. Rind

Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA, New York, New York, USA


Abstract

To distinguish between simultaneous natural and anthropogenic impacts on surface temperature, regionally as well as globally, we perform a robust multivariate analysis using the best available estimates of each together with the observed surface temperature record from 1889 to 2006. The results enable us to compare, for the first time from observations, the geographical distributions of responses to individual influences consistent with their global impacts. We find a response to solar forcing quite different from that reported in several papers published recently in this journal, and zonally averaged responses to both natural and anthropogenic forcings that differ distinctly from those indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose conclusions depended on model simulations. Anthropogenic warming estimated directly from the historical observations is more pronounced between 45°S and 50°N than at higher latitudes whereas the model-simulated trends have minimum values in the tropics and increase steadily from 30 to 70°N.

Received 2 June 2008; accepted 8 August 2008; published 16 September 2008.

Keywords: surface temperature; natural forcing; anthropogenic forcing.

Index Terms: 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 1650 Global Change: Solar variability (7537); 7538 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy: Solar irradiance; 0370 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Volcanic effects (8409).

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Citation: Lean, J. L., and D. H. Rind (2008), How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18701, doi:10.1029/2008GL034864.