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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • extreme rainfall
  • global warming
  • Indian monsoon

Index Terms

  • Hydrology: Glaciology
  • Global Change: Climate variability
  • Global Change: Regional climate change
  • Biogeosciences: Data sets
  • Global Change: Instruments and techniques

Abstract

Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data

M. Rajeevan

National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Tirupati, India

Jyoti Bhate

National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Tirupati, India

A. K. Jaswal

National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Tirupati, India

In this study, using 104 years (1901–2004) of high resolution daily gridded rainfall data, variability and long-term trends of extreme rainfall events over central India have been examined. Frequency of extreme rainfall events shows significant inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in addition to a statistically significant long term trend of 6% per decade. Detailed analysis shows that inter-annual, inter-decadal and long-term trends of extreme rainfall events are modulated by the SST variations over the tropical Indian Ocean. The present study supports the hypothesis that the increasing trend of extreme rainfall events in the last five decades could be associated with the increasing trend of sea surface temperatures and surface latent heat flux over the tropical Indian Ocean. In the global warming scenario, the coherent relationship between Indian Ocean SST and extreme rainfall events suggests an increase in the risk of major floods over central India.

Received 28 June 2008; accepted 18 August 2008; published 20 September 2008.

Citation: Rajeevan, M., J. Bhate, and A. K. Jaswal (2008), Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18707, doi:10.1029/2008GL035143.

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