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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • European temperature reconstruction
  • RegEM
  • ensemble

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Climate variability
  • Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Spatial analysis
  • Global Change: Regional climate change
  • Computational Geophysics: Data analysis: algorithms and implementation

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L20707, 5 PP., 2008
doi:10.1029/2008GL035395

An ensemble of European summer and winter temperature reconstructions back to 1500

N. Riedwyl

Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

J. Luterbacher

Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

H. Wanner

Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

An ensemble of statistical methods is applied to reconstruct European temperature variability back to 1500. We apply principal component (PC) regression, regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) and composite-plus-scaling (CPS) to multi-proxy data. The reconstructions for summer and winter European temperature averages, and spatial fields related to warmest and coldest decades are analyzed and discussed. PC regression and RegEM perform more similarly compared to CPS, and more robust reconstructions are achieved for winter than for summer. We conclude that temperature reconstructions can not be improved significantly by replacing the reconstruction technique only. Discordances are very likely to be due to limited spatial and temporal availability of the proxy data. The comparison reveals that seasonal temperature variability is likely more variable than indicated earlier, still pointing out the exceptional warmth of the late 20th century. However, further evidence is needed, as the summer reconstruction results of the three techniques are not yet fully coherent.

Received 22 July 2008; accepted 18 September 2008; published 25 October 2008.

Citation: Riedwyl, N., J. Luterbacher, and H. Wanner (2008), An ensemble of European summer and winter temperature reconstructions back to 1500, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20707, doi:10.1029/2008GL035395.

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