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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • entropy
  • earthquake dynamics

Index Terms

  • Geodesy and Gravity: Seismic cycle related deformations
  • Nonlinear Geophysics: Complex systems
  • Nonlinear Geophysics: Self-organized criticality
  • Seismology: Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L19311, 5 PP., 2008
doi:10.1029/2008GL035590

Maximum entropy production and earthquake dynamics

Ian G. Main

School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

Mark Naylor

School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

We examine the consistency of natural and model seismicity with the maximum entropy production hypothesis for open, slowly-driven, steady-state, dissipative systems. Assuming the commonly-observed power-law feedback between remote boundary stress and strain rate at steady state, several natural observations are explained by the system organizing to maximize entropy production in a near but strictly sub-critical state. These include the low but finite seismic efficiency and stress drop, an upper magnitude cut-off that is large but finite, and the universally- observed Gutenberg-Richter b-value of 1 in frequency-magnitude data. In this state the model stress field organizes into coherent domains, providing a physical mechanism for retaining a finite memory of past events. This implies a finite degree of predictability, strongly limited theoretically by the proximity to criticality and practically by the difficulty of directly observing Earth's stress field at an equivalent resolution.

Received 5 August 2008; accepted 9 September 2008; published 14 October 2008.

Citation: Main, I. G., and M. Naylor (2008), Maximum entropy production and earthquake dynamics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L19311, doi:10.1029/2008GL035590.

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