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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • nonlinear dynamics
  • numerical weather prediction
  • model error

Index Terms

  • Nonlinear Geophysics: Nonlinear differential equations
  • Atmospheric Processes: Data assimilation
  • Global Change: Global climate models
  • Computational Geophysics: Model verification and validation
  • Nonlinear Geophysics: Chaos

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L24805, 6 PP., 2008
doi:10.1029/2008GL036239

Impact of online empirical model correction on nonlinear error growth

Christopher M. Danforth

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Complex Systems Center, Vermont Advanced Computing Center, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, USA

Eugenia Kalnay

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA

The purpose of this study is to compare two methods of correcting the bias of a GCM; namely statistical correction performed a posteriori (offline) as a function of forecast length, and correction done within the model integration (online). The model errors of a low resolution GCM are estimated by the 6-hour forecast residual averaged over several years and used to correct the model. Both the offline and online corrections substantially reduce the model bias when applied to independent data. Their performance in correcting the model error is comparable at all lead times, but for lead times longer than 1-day the online corrected forecasts have smaller RMS forecast errors and larger anomaly correlations than offline corrected forecasts. These results indicate that the online correction reduces not only the growth of the bias but also the nonlinear growth of non-constant (state-dependent and random) forecast errors during the model integration.

Received 6 October 2008; accepted 13 November 2008; published 24 December 2008.

Citation: Danforth, C. M., and E. Kalnay (2008), Impact of online empirical model correction on nonlinear error growth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L24805, doi:10.1029/2008GL036239.

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