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AGU: Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres

 

Keywords

  • sequential data assimilation
  • variational data assimilation
  • air quality forecast

Index Terms

  • Atmospheric Processes: Data assimilation
  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Pollution: urban and regional
  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere: constituent transport and chemistry
Abstract
Cited By (8)
 

Abstract

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 113, D20310, 17 PP., 2008
doi:10.1029/2008JD009991

A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts

Lin Wu

Paris-Rocquencourt Research Center, INRIA, Le Chesnay, France

CEREA, ENPC-EDF R&D, Université Paris-Est, Marne la Vallée, France

V. Mallet

Paris-Rocquencourt Research Center, INRIA, Le Chesnay, France

CEREA, ENPC-EDF R&D, Université Paris-Est, Marne la Vallée, France

M. Bocquet

Paris-Rocquencourt Research Center, INRIA, Le Chesnay, France

CEREA, ENPC-EDF R&D, Université Paris-Est, Marne la Vallée, France

B. Sportisse

Paris-Rocquencourt Research Center, INRIA, Le Chesnay, France

CEREA, ENPC-EDF R&D, Université Paris-Est, Marne la Vallée, France

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the performances of different data assimilation schemes with the aim of designing suitable assimilation algorithms for short-range ozone forecasts in realistic applications. The underlying atmospheric chemistry-transport models are stiff but stable systems with high uncertainties (e.g., over 20% for ozone daily peaks (Hanna et al., 1998; Mallet and Sportisse, 2006b), and much more for other pollutants like aerosols). Therefore the main difficulty of the ozone data assimilation problem is how to account for the strong model uncertainties. In this paper, the model uncertainties are either parameterized with homogeneous error correlations of the model state or estimated by perturbing some sources of the uncertainties, for example, the model uncertain parameters. Four assimilation methods have been considered, namely, optimal interpolation, reduced-rank square root Kalman filter, ensemble Kalman filter, and four-dimensional variational assimilation. These assimilation algorithms are compared under the same experimental settings. It is found that the assimilations significantly improve the 1-day ozone forecasts. The comparison results reveal the limitations and the potentials of each assimilation algorithm. In our four-dimensional variational method, the low dependency of model simulations on initial conditions leads to moderate performances. In our sequential methods, the optimal interpolation algorithm has the best performance during assimilation periods. Our ensemble Kalman filter algorithm perturbs the uncertain parameters to approximate model uncertainties and has better forecasts than the optimal interpolation algorithm during prediction periods. This could partially be explained by the low dependency on the uncertainties in initial conditions. The sensitivity analysis on the algorithmic parameters is also conducted for the design of suitable assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts.

Received 19 February 2008; accepted 27 August 2008; published 23 October 2008.

Citation: Wu, L., V. Mallet, M. Bocquet, and B. Sportisse (2008), A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20310, doi:10.1029/2008JD009991.

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