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AGU: Space Weather

 

Keywords

  • solar cycle
  • solar cycle length
  • sunspot numbers

Index Terms

  • Space Weather: Forecasting
  • Space Weather: Models
  • Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy: Solar and stellar variability
  • Global Change: Solar variability
Abstract
Cited By (0)
 

Abstract

Forecasting Solar Cycle 24 using the relationship between cycle length and maximum sunspot number

S. Watari

National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Tokyo, Japan

The parameters characterizing a solar cycle are its length and its maximum sunspot number. There is a good negative correlation (correlation coefficient is −0.661) between the length of a solar cycle and the maximum monthly smoothed sunspot number of the next cycle. This suggests that the length is an important parameter in determining the variations of solar activity. Using this relationship, I forecast lower solar activity in Cycle 24 than in Cycle 23.

Received 9 March 2008; accepted 23 September 2008; published 25 December 2008.

Citation: Watari, S. (2008), Forecasting Solar Cycle 24 using the relationship between cycle length and maximum sunspot number, Space Weather, 6, S12003, doi:10.1029/2008SW000397.

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