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Exploring the range of climate biome projections for tropical South America: The role of CO2 fertilization and seasonality
Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil
Instituto de Aeronáutica e Espaço, Divisão de Ciências Atmosféricas, São José dos Campos, Brazil
Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil
Tropical South America vegetation cover projections for the end of the century differ considerably depending on climate scenario and also on how physiological processes are considered in vegetation models. In this paper we use a potential vegetation model (CPTEC-PVM2) to analyze biome distribution in tropical South America under a range of climate projections and a range of estimates about the effects of increased atmospheric CO2. We show that if the CO2 “fertilization effect” indeed takes place and is maintained in the long term in tropical forests, then it will avoid biome shifts in Amazonia in most of the climate scenarios, even if the effect of CO2 fertilization is halved. However, if CO2 fertilization does not play any important role on tropical forests in the future or if dry season is longer than 4 months (projected by 2/14 GCMs), then there is replacement of large portions of Amazonia by tropical savanna.
Received 29 August 2008; accepted 8 April 2009; published 3 July 2009.
Citation: (2009), Exploring the range of climate biome projections for tropical South America: The role of CO2 fertilization and seasonality, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 23, GB3003, doi:10.1029/2008GB003357.
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