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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • coral bleaching
  • ocean thermostat
  • Western Pacific Warm Pool

Index Terms

  • Biogeosciences: Remote sensing
  • Global Change: Impacts of global change
  • Global Change: Regional climate change
  • Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability
  • Oceanography: General: Coral reef systems

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L06705, 5 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2008GL036288

Equivocal evidence for a thermostat and unusually low levels of coral bleaching in the Western Pacific Warm Pool

Ruben van Hooidonk

Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA

Matthew Huber

Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA

An ocean “thermostat” was recently proposed that limits Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) sea surface temperature (SST) causing anomalously low coral bleaching rates. We analyze WPWP SST trends and bleaching using HadISST data and a coral bleaching database and find no strong evidence for a thermostat or for anomalously low bleaching. A region within the WPWP has a trend of maximum SST near zero, but this signal is not robust – by using different data or periods the signal disappears. We do find a negative correlation between the average warmest month for the years 1950–1969 (average SST max) and the linear trend of maximum monthly temperatures for the years 1950–2006 (linear trend SST max). However this correlation is not unique to the WPWP, it is also observed in a cooler region. Consequently it can not be explained by a thermostat. The observed sparsity of bleaching observations in the WPWP is not in agreement with estimated bleaching likelihood. The sparsity of observations is more likely due to the WPWP's remoteness.

Received 9 October 2008; accepted 17 February 2009; published 21 March 2009.

Citation: van Hooidonk, R., and M. Huber (2009), Equivocal evidence for a thermostat and unusually low levels of coral bleaching in the Western Pacific Warm Pool, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L06705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036288.

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