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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 36,
L01306,
5 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2008GL036364
Predicting the geodetic signature of MW ≥ 8 slow slip events
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Elastic dislocation models of geodetic measurements above subduction zones have led to the identification of MW ≈ 6.0–7.2 slow slip events (SSEs) that release elastic strain over periods of days to months, but great (MW ≥ 8) SSEs have remained unidentified. We extrapolate observations of SSE duration and slip magnitude to show that slip velocity decreases with event magnitude and predict that the slip velocity of MW ≥ 8 SSEs is ≤50 mm/yr. The slip velocity for great SSEs may never exceed the plate convergence rate and thus never produce a reversal in trench perpendicular motion. Instead, geodetically constrained estimates of apparent partial elastic coupling on subduction zone interfaces worldwide may be direct observations of ongoing MW ≥ 8 silent earthquakes with durations of decades to centuries.
Received 17 October 2008; accepted 1 December 2008; published 7 January 2009.
Citation: (2009), Predicting the geodetic signature of MW ≥ 8 slow slip events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01306, doi:10.1029/2008GL036364.
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