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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • early warning
  • CAV
  • Istanbul

Index Terms

  • Computational Geophysics: Data analysis: algorithms and implementation
  • Seismology: Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction
  • Seismology: Seismic instruments and networks

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L00B05, 3 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2008GL036659

A study on warning algorithms for Istanbul earthquake early warning system

Hakan Alcik

Earthquake Engineering Department, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey

Oguz Ozel

Geophysics Department, Engineering Faculty, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey

Nurdan Apaydin

17th Division, General Directorate of Highways, Istanbul, Turkey

Mustafa Erdik

Earthquake Engineering Department, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey

17 August (Mw 7.4) and 12 November 1999 (Mw 7.2) earthquakes have caused major concern about future earthquake occurrences in Istanbul and in the Marmara Region. Stress transfer studies and renewal model type probabilistic investigations indicate about 2% annual probability for a M w = 7+ earthquake in the Marmara Sea. As part of the preparations for the expected earthquake in Istanbul, an early warning system has been established in 2002. A simple and robust algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) levels, is implemented for this system. Rational threshold levels related to new bracketed CAV window approach (BCAV-W) are determined, based on dataset of strong ground motion records with fault distances of less than 100 km, as 0.2 m/s, 0.4 m/s and 0.7 m/s related to three alarm levels which will be incorporated in the Istanbul earthquake early warning system.

Received 13 November 2008; accepted 26 January 2009; published 21 February 2009.

Citation: Alcik, H., O. Ozel, N. Apaydin, and M. Erdik (2009), A study on warning algorithms for Istanbul earthquake early warning system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L00B05, doi:10.1029/2008GL036659.

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