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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • climate shifts
  • synchronization
  • North Atlantic Oscillation

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Climate variability
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Time series analysis
  • Global Change: Climate dynamics
  • Nonlinear Geophysics: Complex systems
  • Computational Geophysics: Data analysis: algorithms and implementation

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L07708, 5 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2008GL036874

The pacemaker of major climate shifts

Geli Wang

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Kyle L. Swanson

Atmospheric Sciences Group, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin‐Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Anastasios A. Tsonis

Atmospheric Sciences Group, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin‐Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Models and data suggest that the interplay of major climate modes may result in climate shifts. More specifically it has been shown that when the network of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Pacific Index (NPI) synchronizes, an increase in the coupling between these oscillations destroys the synchronous state and leads the climate system to a new state. These shifts are associated with significant changes in global temperature trend and in ENSO variability. Here we probe the details of this network's dynamics to investigate if a certain oscillation is the culprit in these shifts. From a total of 12 synchronization events observed in three climate simulations and in observations we find that the instigator of these shifts is NAO. Without exception only when NAO's coupling with the Pacific increases a shift will occur. Our results suggest a dynamical sequence of events in the evolution of climate shifts which is consistent with recent independent empirical and modeling studies.

Received 2 December 2008; accepted 3 February 2009; published 15 April 2009.

Citation: Wang, G., K. L. Swanson, and A. A. Tsonis (2009), The pacemaker of major climate shifts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07708, doi:10.1029/2008GL036874.

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