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AGU: Journal of Geophysical Research, Space Physics

 

Keywords

  • interplanetary shocks
  • arrival time
  • prediction method

Index Terms

  • Interplanetary Physics: Interplanetary shocks
  • Interplanetary Physics: Ejecta, driver gases, and magnetic clouds
  • Interplanetary Physics: Solar wind plasma
  • Space Weather: Forecasting
  • Space Weather: General or miscellaneous
Abstract
Cited By (3)
 

Abstract

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 114, A01101, 14 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2008JA013499

A practical database method for predicting arrivals of “average” interplanetary shocks at Earth

X. S. Feng

Solar-Interplanetary-Geomagnetic Weather Group, State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Y. Zhang

Solar-Interplanetary-Geomagnetic Weather Group, State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

School of Earth Sciences, Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

W. Sun

Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA

M. Dryer

Exploration Physics International, Inc., Huntsville, Alabama, USA

Space Weather Prediction Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, USA

C. D. Fry

Exploration Physics International, Inc., Huntsville, Alabama, USA

C. S. Deehr

Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA

A practical database method for predicting the interplanetary shock arrival time at L1 point is presented here. First, a shock transit time database (hereinafter called Database-I) based on HAFv.1 (version 1 of the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry model) is preliminarily established with hypothetical solar events. Then, on the basis of the prediction test results of 130 observed solar events during the period from February 1997 to August 2002, Database-I is modified to create a practical database method, named Database-II, organized on a multidimensional grid of source location, initial coronal shock speed, and the year of occurrence of the hypothetical solar event. The arrival time at L1 for any given solar event occurring in the 23rd solar cycle can be predicted by looking up in the grid of Database-II according to source location, the initial coronal shock speed, and the year of occurrence in cycle 23. Within the hit window of ±12 h, the success rate of the Database-II method for 130 solar events is 44%. This could be practically equivalent to the shock time of arrival (STOA) model, the interplanetary shock propagation model (ISPM), and the HAFv.2 model. To explore the capability of this method, it is tested on new data sets. These tests give reasonable results. In particular, this method's performance for a set of events in other cycles is as good as that of the STOA and ISPM models. This gives us confidence in its application to other cycles. From the viewpoint of long-term periodicity for solar activity, it is expected that the Database-II method can be applicable to the next solar cycle 24.

Received 15 June 2008; accepted 7 November 2008; published 6 January 2009.

Citation: Feng, X. S., Y. Zhang, W. Sun, M. Dryer, C. D. Fry, and C. S. Deehr (2009), A practical database method for predicting arrivals of “average” interplanetary shocks at Earth, J. Geophys. Res., 114, A01101, doi:10.1029/2008JA013499.

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