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AGU: Water Resources Research

 

Keywords

  • stationarity
  • floods
  • trend
  • change point
  • long-term persistence
  • GAMLSS

Index Terms

  • Hydrology: Floods
  • Hydrology: Extreme events
  • Hydrology: Anthropogenic effects
  • Hydrology: Time series analysis

Abstract

WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 45, W08417, 17 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2008WR007645

On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century

Gabriele Villarini

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA

Willis Research Network, London, UK

Francesco Serinaldi

Department of Hydraulics Transportation and Highways, “Sapienza” University of Rome, Rome, Italy

Honors Center of Italian Universities, “Sapienza” University of Rome, Rome, Italy

James A. Smith

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA

Witold F. Krajewski

IIHR–Hydroscience & Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, USA

Annual peak discharge records from 50 stations in the continental United States with at least 100 years of record are used to investigate stationarity of flood peaks during the 20th century. We examine temporal trends in flood peaks and abrupt changes in the mean and/or variance of flood peak distributions. Change point analysis for detecting abrupt changes in flood distributions is performed using the nonparametric Pettitt test. Two nonparametric (Mann-Kendall and Spearman) tests and one parametric (Pearson) test are used to detect the presence of temporal trends. Generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) are also used to parametrically model the annual peak data, exploiting their flexibility to account for abrupt changes and temporal trends in the parameters of the distribution functions. Additionally, the presence of long-term persistence is investigated through estimation of the Hurst exponent, and an alternative interpretation of the results in terms of long-term persistence is provided. Many of the drainage basins represented in this study have been affected by regulation through systems of reservoirs, and all of the drainage basins have experienced significant land use changes during the 20th century. Despite the profound changes that have occurred to drainage basins throughout the continental United States and the recognition that elements of the hydrologic cycle are being altered by human-induced climate change, it is easier to proclaim the demise of stationarity of flood peaks than to prove it through analyses of annual flood peak data.

Received 10 December 2008; accepted 13 May 2009; published 13 August 2009.

Citation: Villarini, G., F. Serinaldi, J. A. Smith, and W. F. Krajewski (2009), On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century, Water Resour. Res., 45, W08417, doi:10.1029/2008WR007645.

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