FastFind »   Lastname: doi:10.1029/ Year: | Advanced Search  

AGU: Water Resources Research

 

Keywords

  • climate change
  • water supply

Index Terms

  • Hydrology: Water supply
  • Hydrology: Water management
  • Global Change: Regional climate change

Abstract

WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 45, W08201, 7 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2008WR007652

Water supply risk on the Colorado River: Can management mitigate?

Balaji Rajagopalan

Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Kenneth Nowak

Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA

James Prairie

Bureau of Reclamation, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Martin Hoerling

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Benjamin Harding

Earth and Environmental Division, AMEC, Inc., Boulder, Colorado, USA

Joseph Barsugli

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Andrea Ray

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Bradley Udall

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Population growth and a changing climate will tax the future reliability of the Colorado River water supply. Using a heuristic model, we assess the annual risk to the Colorado River water supply for 2008–2057. Projected demand growth superimposed upon historical climate variability results in only a small probability of annual reservoir depletion through 2057. In contrast, a scenario of 20% reduction in the annual Colorado River flow due to climate change by 2057 results in a near tenfold increase in the probability of annual reservoir depletion by 2057. However, our analysis suggests that flexibility in current management practices could mitigate some of the increased risk due to climate change–induced reductions in flows.

Received 14 December 2008; accepted 1 July 2009; published 21 August 2009.

Citation: Rajagopalan, B., K. Nowak, J. Prairie, M. Hoerling, B. Harding, J. Barsugli, A. Ray, and B. Udall (2009), Water supply risk on the Colorado River: Can management mitigate?, Water Resour. Res., 45, W08201, doi:10.1029/2008WR007652.

Cited By

Please wait one moment ...