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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • light ring
  • temperature reconstruction
  • multivariate adaptive regression splines

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Climate variability
  • Global Change: Regional climate change
  • Biogeosciences: Paleoclimatology and paleoceanography
  • Biogeosciences: Natural hazards

Abstract

Frequency of cool summers in interior North America over the past three centuries

Martin P. Girardin

Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Quebec, Québec, Canada

Centre for Forest Interdisciplinary Research, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Jacques C. Tardif

Centre for Forest Interdisciplinary Research, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Brock Epp

Centre for Forest Interdisciplinary Research, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

ECOSTEM Ltd., Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

France Conciatori

Centre for Forest Interdisciplinary Research, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

An innovative technique utilizes a tree‐ring marker to investigate long‐term changes in the frequency of cool summers in Interior North America (INA), a region that currently suffers important gaps in knowledge concerning annual to secular temperature changes. Using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), we established a threshold for the formation of climatically‐induced light rings recorded in Pinus banksiana trees from INA. Then, we used the MARS model to reconstruct negative departures in summer maximum temperatures (April–September) from 1717 to 2007. The estimates explain 45% of the variance in instrumental temperature data. The reconstruction indicates the presence of significant multidecadal changes in the frequency of cool summers, with maximums in 1780, 1900 and 1960 and minimums in 1740, 1860, 1920 and 2000. No evidence of secular changes was found.

Received 9 January 2009; accepted 10 March 2009; published 11 April 2009.

Citation: Girardin, M. P., J. C. Tardif, B. Epp, and F. Conciatori (2009), Frequency of cool summers in interior North America over the past three centuries, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07705, doi:10.1029/2009GL037242.

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