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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • fall
  • temperature
  • extreme

Index Terms

  • Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability
  • Global Change: Climate dynamics
  • Atmospheric Processes: Regional modeling
  • Paleoceanography: Sea surface temperature

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L06713, 5 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2009GL037339

Origins of the extremely warm European fall of 2006

J. Cattiaux

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR1572, IPSL, UVSQ, CEA, CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

R. Vautard

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR1572, IPSL, UVSQ, CEA, CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

P. Yiou

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR1572, IPSL, UVSQ, CEA, CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

The fall of 2006 was the warmest on record in Europe. So far the origins of this seasonal extreme anomaly have not been elucidated, but understanding them is crucial since climate change may increase the frequency and amplitude of such extreme seasons. From a statistical analysis and regional modeling experiments we estimate the contributions of regional atmospheric circulation and sea-surface temperatures (SST) on the continental surface temperatures of this event. Both the regression and the dynamical model attribute about 50% of the land temperature anomaly to the atmospheric flow conditions, 30% to the SST warm anomaly, while the missing 20% remain unexplained. Assuming such decomposition, the contribution of trend components would explain about 20 to 40% of the anomaly, a proportion that should increase in the future.

Received 16 January 2009; accepted 26 February 2009; published 31 March 2009.

Citation: Cattiaux, J., R. Vautard, and P. Yiou (2009), Origins of the extremely warm European fall of 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L06713, doi:10.1029/2009GL037339.

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