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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • SST
  • climate
  • uncertainty

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Climate variability
  • Oceanography: Physical: Air/sea interactions
  • Global Change: Global climate models

Abstract

Practical implications of uncertainty in observed SSTs

Lisa Goddard

International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA

David G. DeWitt

International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA

Richard W. Reynolds

National Climate Data Center, NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA

Uncertainties in the accuracy of observed sea surface temperature (SST) estimates limit a number of efforts relevant to seasonal-to-interannual climate variability and its prediction. Some of the efforts that may be hampered by uncertain SSTs include estimates of skill in predicted SSTs, attribution studies of seasonal climate anomalies, and calibration of probabilistic seasonal climate forecast systems. This study examines the explicit impact of SST uncertainties on the climate response from an atmospheric general circulation model. Uncertainties in Western Pacific SSTs play a substantial role in the sensitivity of the seasonal climate.

Received 10 February 2009; accepted 10 April 2009; published 13 May 2009.

Citation: Goddard, L., D. G. DeWitt, and R. W. Reynolds (2009), Practical implications of uncertainty in observed SSTs, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09710, doi:10.1029/2009GL037703.

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