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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 36,
L12702,
5 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2009GL038710
Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
A control simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 global coupled GCM, run for 2000 years with its atmospheric composition, solar irradiance, and land cover held fixed at 1860 values, exhibits strong interdecadal and intercentennial modulation of its ENSO behavior. To the extent that such modulation is realistic, it could attach large uncertainties to ENSO metrics diagnosed from centennial and shorter records – with important implications for historical and paleo records, climate projections, and model assessment and intercomparison. Analysis of the wait times between ENSO warm events suggests that such slow modulation need not require multidecadal memory; it can arise simply from Poisson statistics applied to ENSO's interannual time scale and seasonal phase-locking.
Received 16 April 2009; accepted 2 June 2009; published 23 June 2009.
Citation: (2009), Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12702, doi:10.1029/2009GL038710.
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