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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • polar motion
  • steric sea level rise
  • ocean warming

Index Terms

  • Oceanography: Physical: Ocean influence of Earth rotation
  • Geodesy and Gravity: Global change from geodesy
  • Geodesy and Gravity: Earth rotation variations
  • Global Change: Sea level change

Abstract

Long-term polar motion excited by ocean thermal expansion

Felix W. Landerer

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany

Johann H. Jungclaus

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Jochem Marotzke

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Ocean warming is commonly considered unable to excite significant long-term trends in polar motion. Here, however, we argue that this assumption needs to be revised. We demonstrate that steric sea level rise leads to a distinct pattern of horizontal mass redistribution within ocean basins and hence to ocean bottom pressure changes that alter Earth's inertia tensor on decadal and longer time scales. Based on Earth system model simulations, we estimate that ocean warming leads to polar motion of 0.15 to 0.20 milli-arcseconds per one millimeter of thermal sea level rise. This is equivalent to a polar motion rate of about 0.47 milli-arcseconds per year towards 155°W to 160°W for current projections of steric sea level rise during the 21st century. The proposed polar motion signal is therefore not negligible in comparison to other decadal and secular signals, and should be accounted for in the interpretation of polar motion observations.

Received 19 June 2009; accepted 5 August 2009; published 4 September 2009.

Citation: Landerer, F. W., J. H. Jungclaus, and J. Marotzke (2009), Long-term polar motion excited by ocean thermal expansion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L17603, doi:10.1029/2009GL039692.

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