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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • sea level rise
  • volcanic and solar radiative forcing
  • CO2 and other greenhouse gases

Index Terms

  • Oceanography: Physical: Sea level: variations and mean
  • History of Geophysics: Ocean sciences
  • History of Geophysics: Cryosphere
  • Hydrology: Climate impacts

Abstract

Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

S. Jevrejeva

Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Liverpool, UK

A. Grinsted

Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

J. C. Moore

Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland

Thule Institute, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland

College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1.5 cm are due to a rapid increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Received 23 July 2009; accepted 23 September 2009; published 28 October 2009.

Citation: Jevrejeva, S., A. Grinsted, and J. C. Moore (2009), Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20706, doi:10.1029/2009GL040216.

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