Abstract
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 36,
L21302,
5 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2009GL040233
Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy
We describe the results of a prospective, real-time earthquake forecast experiment made during a seismic emergency. A Mw 6.3 earthquake struck the city of L'Aquila, Italy on April 6, 2009, causing hundreds of deaths and vast damage. Immediately following this event, we began producing daily earthquake forecasts for the region, and we provided these forecasts to Civil Protection – the agency responsible for managing the emergency. The forecasts are based on a stochastic model that combines the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake magnitudes and power-law decay in space and time of triggered earthquakes. The results from the first month following the L'Aquila earthquake exhibit a good fit between forecasts and observations, indicating that accurate earthquake forecasting is now a realistic goal. Our experience with this experiment demonstrates an urgent need for a connection between probabilistic forecasts and decision-making in order to establish – before crises – quantitative and transparent protocols for decision support.
Received 27 July 2009; accepted 28 September 2009; published 6 November 2009.
Citation: (2009), Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21302, doi:10.1029/2009GL040233.
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