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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • earthquake forecasting
  • model validation
  • L’Aquila earthquake

Index Terms

  • Seismology: Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic forecasting
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Stochastic processes
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Persistence, memory, correlations, clustering
  • Computational Geophysics: Model verification and validation

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L21302, 5 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2009GL040233

Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake

Warner Marzocchi

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy

Anna Maria Lombardi

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy

We describe the results of a prospective, real-time earthquake forecast experiment made during a seismic emergency. A Mw 6.3 earthquake struck the city of L'Aquila, Italy on April 6, 2009, causing hundreds of deaths and vast damage. Immediately following this event, we began producing daily earthquake forecasts for the region, and we provided these forecasts to Civil Protection – the agency responsible for managing the emergency. The forecasts are based on a stochastic model that combines the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake magnitudes and power-law decay in space and time of triggered earthquakes. The results from the first month following the L'Aquila earthquake exhibit a good fit between forecasts and observations, indicating that accurate earthquake forecasting is now a realistic goal. Our experience with this experiment demonstrates an urgent need for a connection between probabilistic forecasts and decision-making in order to establish – before crises – quantitative and transparent protocols for decision support.

Received 27 July 2009; accepted 28 September 2009; published 6 November 2009.

Citation: Marzocchi, W., and A. M. Lombardi (2009), Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21302, doi:10.1029/2009GL040233.

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