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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • multi-model ensemble
  • seasonal forecasts
  • skill

Index Terms

  • Atmospheric Processes: Global climate models
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic forecasting
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Prediction
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Uncertainty quantification
  • Computational Geophysics: Model verification and validation

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L21711, 6 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2009GL040896

ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

A. Weisheimer

ECMWF, Reading, UK

F. J. Doblas-Reyes

ECMWF, Reading, UK

T. N. Palmer

ECMWF, Reading, UK

A. Alessandri

CMCC, Bologna, Italy

A. Arribas

Met Office, Exeter, UK

M. Déqué

Météo France, Toulouse, France

N. Keenlyside

Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften an der Universität Kiel (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel, Germany

M. MacVean

ECMWF, Reading, UK

Met Office, Exeter, UK

A. Navarra

CMCC, Bologna, Italy

P. Rogel

CERFACS, URA1875, Toulouse, France

A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS errors and enhanced ensemble dispersion at all lead-times. Systematic errors are considerably reduced over the previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher skill for the new multi-model ensemble than for DEMETER in the 4–6 month forecast range. However, substantially improved models would be required to achieve strongly statistical significant skill increases. The combination of ENSEMBLES and DEMETER into a grand multi-model ensemble does not improve the forecast skill further. Annual-range hindcasts show anomaly correlation skill of ∼0.5 up to 14 months ahead. A wide range of output from the multi-model simulations is becoming publicly available and the international community is invited to explore the full scientific potential of these data.

Received 11 September 2009; accepted 13 October 2009; published 12 November 2009.

Citation: Weisheimer, A., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, T. N. Palmer, A. Alessandri, A. Arribas, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. MacVean, A. Navarra, and P. Rogel (2009), ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040896.

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