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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • climate event attribution
  • climate change
  • North American temperature

Index Terms

  • Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability
  • Global Change: Regional climate change
  • Atmospheric Processes: Ocean/atmosphere interactions

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L23706, 5 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2009GL041188

A strong bout of natural cooling in 2008

Judith Perlwitz

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Martin Hoerling

Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Jon Eischeid

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Taiyi Xu

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Arun Kumar

Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, Camp Springs, Marlyand, USA

A precipitous drop in North American temperature in 2008, commingled with a decade-long fall in global mean temperatures, are generating opinions contrary to the inferences drawn from the science of climate change. We use an extensive suite of model simulations and appraise factors contributing to 2008 temperature conditions over North America. We demonstrate that the anthropogenic impact in 2008 was to warm the region's temperatures, but that it was overwhelmed by a particularly strong bout of naturally-induced cooling resulting from the continent's sensitivity to widespread coolness of the tropical and northeastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. The implication is that the pace of North American warming is likely to resume in coming years, and that climate is unlikely embarking upon a prolonged cooling.

Received 29 September 2009; accepted 10 November 2009; published 8 December 2009.

Citation: Perlwitz, J., M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, T. Xu, and A. Kumar (2009), A strong bout of natural cooling in 2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23706, doi:10.1029/2009GL041188.

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