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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • Arctic sea ice loss
  • stratospheric polar ozone
  • future projections

Index Terms

  • Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability
  • Atmospheric Processes: General circulation
  • Atmospheric Processes: Ocean/atmosphere interactions
  • Atmospheric Processes: Polar meteorology

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L24701, 5 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2009GL041239

Impact of sudden Arctic sea-ice loss on stratospheric polar ozone recovery

J. F. Scinocca

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

M. C. Reader

School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

D. A. Plummer

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

M. Sigmond

Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

P. J. Kushner

Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

T. G. Shepherd

Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

A. R. Ravishankara

Chemical Sciences Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, USA

We investigate the sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere polar ozone recovery to a scenario in which there is rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice in the first half of the 21st century. The issue is addressed by coupling a chemistry climate model to an ocean general circulation model and performing simulations of ozone recovery with, and without, an external perturbation designed to cause a rapid and complete loss of summertime Arctic sea ice. Under this extreme perturbation, the stratospheric response takes the form of a springtime polar cooling which is dynamical rather than radiative in origin, and is caused by reduced wave forcing from the troposphere. The response lags the onset of the sea-ice perturbation by about one decade and lasts for more than two decades, and is associated with an enhanced weakening of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The stratospheric dynamical response leads to a 10 DU reduction in polar column ozone, which is statistically robust. While this represents a modest loss, it has the potential to induce a delay of roughly one decade in Arctic ozone recovery estimates made in the 2006 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion.

Received 2 October 2009; accepted 25 November 2009; published 25 December 2009.

Citation: Scinocca, J. F., M. C. Reader, D. A. Plummer, M. Sigmond, P. J. Kushner, T. G. Shepherd, and A. R. Ravishankara (2009), Impact of sudden Arctic sea-ice loss on stratospheric polar ozone recovery, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L24701, doi:10.1029/2009GL041239.

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