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AGU: Water Resources Research

 

Keywords

  • damage mitigation
  • flood insurance
  • information campaigns
  • rationality
  • risk perceptions
  • Netherlands

Index Terms

  • Policy Sciences: Decision making under uncertainty
  • Policy Sciences: General or miscellaneous
  • Public Issues: General or miscellaneous
  • Hydrology: Floods

Abstract

WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 45, W10440, 15 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2009WR007743

Dependence of flood risk perceptions on socioeconomic and objective risk factors

W. J. W. Botzen

Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

J. C. J. H. Aerts

Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

J. C. J. M. van den Bergh

Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

ICREA, Barcelona, Spain

Institute of Environmental Science and Technology and Department of Economics and Economic History Autonomous, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

This study examines flood risk perceptions of individuals in the Netherlands using a survey of approximately 1000 homeowners. Perceptions of a range of aspects of flood risk are elicited. Various statistical models are used to estimate the influence of socioeconomic and geographical characteristics, personal experience with flooding, knowledge of flood threats, and individual risk attitudes on shaping risk belief. The study shows that in general, perceptions of flood risk are low. An analysis of the factors determining risk perceptions provides four main insights relevant for policy makers and insurers. First, differences in expected risk are consistently related to actual risk levels, since individuals in the vicinity of a main river and low-lying areas generally have elevated risk perceptions. Second, individuals in areas unprotected by dikes tend to underestimate their risk of flooding. Third, individuals with little knowledge of the causes of flood events have lower perceptions of flood risk. Fourth, there is some evidence that older and more highly educated individuals have a lower flood risk perception. The findings indicate that increasing knowledge of citizens about the causes of flooding may increase flood risk awareness. It is especially important to target individuals who live in areas unprotected by dike infrastructure, since they tend to be unaware of or ignore the high risk exposure faced.

Received 18 January 2009; accepted 14 July 2009; published 29 October 2009.

Citation: Botzen, W. J. W., J. C. J. H. Aerts, and J. C. J. M. van den Bergh (2009), Dependence of flood risk perceptions on socioeconomic and objective risk factors, Water Resour. Res., 45, W10440, doi:10.1029/2009WR007743.

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