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AGU: Water Resources Research

 

Keywords

  • asymptotic normality
  • breakpoints
  • periodic Markov process
  • snow depth dynamics
  • snow hydrology
  • trends

Index Terms

  • Cryosphere: Snow
  • Hydrology: Snow and ice
  • Hydrology: Stochastic hydrology
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Stochastic processes

Abstract

WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 45, W10426, 11 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2009WR007996

A storage model approach to the assessment of snow depth trends

Jonathan Woody

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, USA

Robert Lund

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, USA

Andrew J. Grundstein

Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA

Thomas L. Mote

Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA

This paper introduces a stochastic storage model capable of assessing trends in daily snow depth series. The model allows for seasonal features, which permits the analysis of daily data. Breakpoint times, which occur when the observing station changes location or instrumentation, are shown to greatly influence estimated trend margins and are accounted for in this analysis. The model is fitted by numerically minimizing a sum of squares of daily prediction errors. Standard errors for the model parameters, useful in making trend inferences, are presented. The methods are illustrated in the analysis of a century of daily snow depth observations from Napoleon, North Dakota. The results here show that snow depths are significantly declining at Napoleon, with spring ablation occurring earlier, and that breakpoint features are very influential in deriving realistic trend estimates.

Received 18 March 2009; accepted 27 July 2009; published 20 October 2009.

Citation: Woody, J., R. Lund, A. J. Grundstein, and T. L. Mote (2009), A storage model approach to the assessment of snow depth trends, Water Resour. Res., 45, W10426, doi:10.1029/2009WR007996.

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