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AGU: Water Resources Research

 

Keywords

  • hydrology
  • uncertainty assessment
  • surface water
  • groundwater
  • probabilistic

Index Terms

  • Hydrology: Uncertainty assessment
  • Hydrology: Modeling
  • Hydrology: Instruments and techniques: modeling

Abstract

WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 45, W00B00, 4 PP., 2009
doi:10.1029/2009WR008471

Introduction to special section on Uncertainty Assessment in Surface and Subsurface Hydrology: An overview of issues and challenges

Alberto Montanari

Faculty of Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy

Christine A. Shoemaker

Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA

Nick van de Giesen

Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands

This paper introduces the Water Resources Research special section on Uncertainty Assessment in Surface and Subsurface Hydrology. Over the past years, hydrological literature has seen a large increase in the number of papers dealing with uncertainty. In this article, we present an overview of the different sources of uncertainty and the different types of problems associated with uncertainty assessment. It is argued here that clarity about which part of the large field of uncertainty research is addressed by a given research activity would already help guide discussions within the hydrological community. We present an introduction to the differences between the more classical frequentist approach to uncertainty and Bayesian approaches and between probabilistic and nonprobabilistic approaches. Bayesian approaches allow for inclusion of more subjective expert knowledge and would be more appropriate where less “hard” data are available. Any underlying assumptions need to be made very clear to the end user. Finally, a brief classification of the articles of the special section is presented.

Received 1 August 2009; accepted 24 August 2009; published 30 October 2009.

Citation: Montanari, A., C. A. Shoemaker, and N. van de Giesen (2009), Introduction to special section on Uncertainty Assessment in Surface and Subsurface Hydrology: An overview of issues and challenges, Water Resour. Res., 45, W00B00, doi:10.1029/2009WR008471.

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