FastFind »   Lastname: doi:10.1029/ Year: | Advanced Search  

AGU: Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth

 

Keywords

  • renewal process
  • Bayesian inference
  • probabilistic forecasting

Index Terms

  • History of Geophysics: Nonlinear geophysics
  • History of Geophysics: Seismology
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic forecasting
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Stochastic processes
  • Computational Geophysics: Data analysis: algorithms and implementation
Abstract
Cited By (0)
 

Abstract

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115, B01302, 25 PP., 2010
doi:10.1029/2008JB006272

Bayesian nonparametric inference for earthquake recurrence time distributions in different tectonic regimes

R. Rotondi

Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Milan, Italy

The objective of this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the time between consecutive earthquakes by employing two equally powerful tools: for the geology, a database of individual seismogenic sources, and for the statistics, assuming that the unknown distribution is a random measure, an estimation method based on the stochastic simulation of Markov chains. The resort to sophisticated instruments is motivated by the particular situation of Italy, where a complex tectonic model is combined with infrequent, medium-size earthquakes. The quality and the length of the parametric catalogue of Italian earthquakes provide for a generous data set but bring with them problems of incompleteness and uncertainty regarding the parametrization of the events. The pointwise estimate of the interevent time density functions makes it possible to calculate the occurrence probability depending on the date of the last event at different forecasting horizons.

Received 23 December 2008; accepted 10 September 2009; published 22 January 2010.

Citation: Rotondi, R. (2010), Bayesian nonparametric inference for earthquake recurrence time distributions in different tectonic regimes, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B01302, doi:10.1029/2008JB006272.

Cited By

Please wait one moment ...