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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • tidal triggering of earthquakes
  • Sumatra earthquakes
  • statistical test

Index Terms

  • Seismology: Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction
  • Seismology: Seismicity and tectonics
  • Seismology: Subduction zones
  • Seismology: Earthquake dynamics
  • Geodesy and Gravity: Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L02301, 4 PP., 2010
doi:10.1029/2009GL041581

Tidal triggering of earthquakes precursory to the recent Sumatra megathrust earthquakes of 26 December 2004 (Mw 9.0), 28 March 2005 (Mw 8.6), and 12 September 2007 (Mw 8.5)

Sachiko Tanaka

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan

I observed tidal triggering of earthquakes precursory to the three giant earthquakes occurring off Sumatra on 26 December 2004 (Mw 9.0), 28 March 2005 (Mw 8.6), and 12 September 2007 (Mw 8.5). I measured the correlation between the Earth tide and earthquake occurrence in and around the focal regions of these megathrust earthquakes. The result of statistical analysis indicates that a high correlation appeared for several to ten years preceding the occurrence of the large earthquakes. The correlation vanished after the main events. The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.

Received 29 October 2009; accepted 15 December 2009; published 21 January 2010.

Citation: Tanaka, S. (2010), Tidal triggering of earthquakes precursory to the recent Sumatra megathrust earthquakes of 26 December 2004 (Mw 9.0), 28 March 2005 (Mw 8.6), and 12 September 2007 (Mw 8.5), Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02301, doi:10.1029/2009GL041581.

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