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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • dynamo
  • geomagnetic forecasting
  • reversals

Index Terms

  • Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism: Dynamo: theories and simulations
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Prediction
  • Nonlinear Geophysics: Chaos
  • Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism: Time variations: secular and longer
  • Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism: Reversals: process, timescale, magnetostratigraphy

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L06305, 5 PP., 2010
doi:10.1029/2009GL041869

Earth's dynamo limit of predictability

G. Hulot

Equipe de Géomagnétisme, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Université Paris-Diderot, INSU, CNRS, Paris, France

F. Lhuillier

Equipe de Géomagnétisme, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Université Paris-Diderot, INSU, CNRS, Paris, France

Equipe de Dynamique des Fluides Géologiques, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Université Paris-Diderot, INSU, CNRS, Paris, France

J. Aubert

Equipe de Dynamique des Fluides Géologiques, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Université Paris-Diderot, INSU, CNRS, Paris, France

Earth's magnetic field is currently decreasing, reducing the protection it offers against charged particles coming from space and increasing space weather hazards within the near-Earth environment. Modeling the future evolution of the field is thus of considerable interest. But how far in the future this can conceivably be done is still an open question. Here we report on the first systematic investigation of the limit of predictability of fully consistent 3D numerical dynamo simulations, and suggest that the Earth's dynamo is likely unpredictable beyond a century, making decade timescale forecasts of the main magnetic field conceivable, but rendering longer-term predictions, such as the timing of the next reversal, totally unpredictable.

Received 20 November 2009; accepted 19 February 2010; published 25 March 2010.

Citation: Hulot, G., F. Lhuillier, and J. Aubert (2010), Earth's dynamo limit of predictability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06305, doi:10.1029/2009GL041869.

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