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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • streamflow trends
  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation
  • human impacts
  • Alberta
  • anthropogenic global warming

Index Terms

  • Hydrology: Hydroclimatology
  • Hydrology: Streamflow
  • Hydrology: Time series analysis
  • Hydrology: Human impacts

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L06407, 5 PP., 2010
doi:10.1029/2009GL042045

Northern Rocky Mountain streamflow records: Global warming trends, human impacts or natural variability?

Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques

Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada

David J. Sauchyn

Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada

Yang Zhao

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada

The ∼60 year Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a major factor controlling streamflow in the northern Rocky Mountains, causing dryness during its positive phase, and wetness during its negative phase. If the PDO’s influence is not incorporated into a trend analysis of streamflows, it can produce detected declines that are actually artifacts of this low-frequency variability. Further difficulties arise from the short length and discontinuity of most gauge records, human impacts, and residual autocorrelation. We analyze southern Alberta and environs instrumental streamflow data, using void-filled datasets from unregulated and regulated gauges and naturalized records, and Generalized Least Squares regression to explicitly model the impacts of the PDO and other climate oscillations. We conclude that streamflows are declining at most gauges due to hydroclimatic changes (probably from global warming) and severe human impacts, which are of the same order of magnitude as the hydroclimate changes, if not greater.

Received 4 December 2009; accepted 18 February 2009; published 26 March 2010.

Citation: St. Jacques, J.-M., D. J. Sauchyn, and Y. Zhao (2010), Northern Rocky Mountain streamflow records: Global warming trends, human impacts or natural variability?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06407, doi:10.1029/2009GL042045.

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