Information on how large-scale forest changes affect water resources is important in China as country-wide reforestation programs are being implemented and concerns have arisen over possible water reduction. In this study, water budget analysis and statistical methods were used to assess the effects of significant forest recovery on river discharge at Guangdong Province based on 50 years of data. We used realized water yield (RWY) as a balance term between the outflows from and inflows to the province to represent the river discharge produced solely in Guangdong Province. The relationship between forest recovery and RWY was inferred after quantitatively examining other contributing variables including precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, development of impervious areas, human water consumption, and reservoir constructions. We applied time series analysis to test the statistical relationship between forest recovery and RWYs at annual, wet season, and dry season intervals. Both approaches showed that large-scale forest recovery did not cause significant water reduction over the past 50 years. This finding is contrary to the widely held perception of the trade-off relationship between carbon (reforestation) and water. There were no significant trends in precipitation or in RWY annually and in the wet season, but there was a significant increase of RWY in the dry season over the past 50 years. It is estimated that forest recovery may play a positive role in redistributing water from the wet season to the dry season and, consequently, in increasing water yield in the dry season. The implication of those research findings for future reforestation programs and water resource protection is also discussed.