Paper in Press
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, doi:10.1029/2011GL050368
Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters
- We construct a monthly tornado activity index depending on atmospheric variables
- The index captures aspects of climatological and year-to-year variability.
- The index provides a framework for extended-range tornado activity prediction.
Monthly U.S. tornado numbers are here related to observation-based monthly averaged atmospheric parameters. Poisson regression is used to form an index which captures the climatological spatial distribution and seasonal variation of tornado occurrence, as well as year-to-year variability, and provides a framework for extended range forecasts of tornado activity. Computing the same index with predicted atmospheric parameters from a comprehensive forecast model gives some evidence of the predictability of monthly tornado activity.
Received 15 November 2011; accepted 13 December 2011.
Citation: (2011), Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2011GL050368, in press.