GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 30, NO. 7, 1378, doi:10.1029/2002GL016832, 2003

Summer snow extent heralding of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation

Mark A. Saunders, Budong Qian, and Benjamin Lloyd-Hughes

Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, Department of Space and Climate Physics, University College London, Holmbury St Mary,
Dorking, Surrey, UK

Abstract

[1]   Winter climate over the North Atlantic and European sector is modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We find that the summer extent of snow cover over northern North America and northern Eurasia is linked significantly (p < 0.01) to the upcoming winter NAO state. Summers with high/low snow extent precede winters of low/high NAO index phase. We suggest the linkage arises from the summer snow-associated formation of anomalous longitudinal differences in surface air temperature with the subpolar North Atlantic. Our findings indicate the seasonal predictability of North Atlantic winter climate may be higher and extend to longer leads than thought previously.

Received 23 December 2002; revised 3 February 2003; accepted 5 February 2003; published 5 April 2003.

Index Terms: 3319 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: General circulation; 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620); 4215 Oceanography: General: Climate and interannual variability (3309).

Citation: Saunders, M. A., B. Qian, and B. Lloyd-Hughes, Summer snow extent heralding of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(7), 1378, doi:10.1029/2002GL016832, 2003.

Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.