next up previous
Up: Earthquake prediction, societal implications Previous: Summary and Conclusions

References

1
Ad-hoc Working Group on the Probabilities of Future Large Earthquakes in Southern California, Future seismic hazards in southern California, Phase I: Implications of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence, 42 p., 1992.

2
Aki, K., Ideal probabilistic earthquake prediction, Tectonophysics, 169 (1989), 197-198.

3
Aki, K., A probabilistic synthesis of precursory phenomena, in D. W. Simpson and P. G. Richards, eds., Earthquake Prediction, an International Review, M. Ewing series, v. 4, Am. Geophys. Union, Washington, D. C., 680 pp.

4
Aki, K., Asperities, barriers, characteristic earthquakes, and strong motion prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 89 (1984), 5867-5872.

5
Aki, K., Some problems in statistical seismology, Zisin (Journal of Seismological Society of Japan), Ser II, 8 (1956), 205-227.

6
Bak, P. and C. Tang, Earthquakes as self-organized critical phenomena, J. Geophys. Res., 94 (1989), 15635-15637.

7
Bakun, W. H. and A. G. Lindh, The Parkfield, California earthquake prediction experiment, Science, 229 (1985), 619-624.

8
Bakun, W. H., et al., Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction scenarios and response plans, U.S. Geol. Surv., Open-File Report 87-192, 1987.

9
Burridge, R. and L. Knopoff, Model and theoretical seismicity, Bull. Seis. Soc. Am., 57 (1967), 341-371.

10
Carlson, J. M. and J. S. Langer, Mechanical model of an earthquake, Physical Review, A 40 (1989), 6470-6484.

11
Cochard, A. and R. Madariaga, Dynamic faulting under rate-dependent friction, PAGEOPH, in press, 1994.

12
Cornell, C. A., Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seis. Soc. Am., 58 (1968), 1583-1606.

13
Dieterich, J. H., Constitutive properties of faults with simulated gouge, in Mechanical Behavior of Crustal Rocks, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., v. 24, ed. N. L. Carter et al., Am. Geophys. Union, Washington, D.C., 108-120, 1981.

14
Encyclopedia Dictionary of Mathematics, by the Mathematical Society of Japan, translation published by the MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1980.

15
Fedotov, S. A., Regularities of the distribution of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands, and northeast Japan, Tr. Inst. Fiz. Zemli Akad. Nauk SSSR, 36 (1965), 66-93.

16
Healy, J. H., V. G. Kossobokov, and J. W. Dewey, A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm M8, U.S. Geol. Surv., Open File Rep., 92-401, 1992.

17
Jackson, D., et al., Future seismic hazards in southern California, EOS, 74 (1993), 426.

18
Jones, L. M., Foreshocks (1966-1980), in the San Andreas system, California, Bull. Seis. Soc., Am., 74 (1984), 1361-1380.

19
Kagan, Y. Y. and D. D. Jackson, Seismic gap hypothesis: Ten years after, J. Geophys. Res., 98 (1993), 419-431.

20
Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, Long term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., in press, 1994.

21
Kelleher, J. A., L. R. Sykes and J. Oliver, Possible criteria for predicting earthquake locations and their applications to major plate boundaries of the Pacific and Caribbean, J. Geophys. Res., 78 (1973), 2547-2585.

22
Langer, J. S., Models of crack propagation, Physical Review, A 46 (1992), 3123-3131.

23
Madariaga, R. and A. Cochard, Heterogeneous faulting and friction, Proc. Int. Symp. on Earthq. Disaster Prevention, Mexico City, ed. R. Melli, v.1, CENAPRED, 103-118, 1992.

24
McCann, W. R., S. P. Nishenko, L. R. Sykes and J. Krause, Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries, PAGEOPH, 217 (1979), 1082-1147.

25
Minster, B., and N. Williams, A systematic approach to assess intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithms based on seismicity patterns, 1993 Annual Report, Southern California Earthquake Center, A29, 1993.

26
National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council Working Group to Evaluate the Parkfield Prediction Experiment, Earthquake Research at Parkfield--1993 and Beyond, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 93-622, 19 p., 1993.

27
Nishenko, S. P., Circum-Pacific seismic potential 1989-1999, PAGEOPH, 135 (1991), 169-259.

28
Otsuka, M., A chain-reaction type source model as a tool to interpret the magnitude frequency relation of earthquakes, J. Phys. Earth, 20 (1972), 35-45.

29
Pepke, S. L., J. M. Carlson, and B. E. Shaw, Prediction of large events on a dynamical model of a fault, J. Geophys. Res., 99 (1994), 6769-6788.

30
Rice, J. R., Spatio-temporal complexity of slip on a fault, J. Geophys. Res., 98 (1993), 9885-9908.

31
Ruina, A. L., Slip instability and state variable friction laws, J. Geophys. Res., 88 (1983), 10359-10370.

32
Saito, M., M. Kikuchi and K. Kudo, An analytic solution for Otsuka's Goishi model, Zisin (Journal of Seismological Society of Japan), Ser. II, 26 (1971), 19-25.

33
Schwartz, D. P. and K. J. Coppersmith, Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes: Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas fault zones, J. Geophys. Res., 89 (1984), 5681-5698.

34
Segall, P. and Y. Du, How similar were the 1934 and 1966 Parkfield earthquakes? J. Geophys. Res., 98 (1993), 4527-4538.

35
Shaw, B. E., Complexity in a spatially uniform continuum fault model, preprint, 1994.

36
Sykes, L. R. and S. P. Nishenko, Probabilities of occurrence of large plate rupturing earthquakes for the San Andreas, San Jacinto, and Imperial fault, California, 1983-2003, J. Geophys. Res., 89 (1984), 5905-5927.

37
Vere-Jones, D., A. branching model for crack propagation, PAGEOPH, 114 (1976), 711-725.

38
Vidale, J. E., W. L. Ellsworth, A. Cole and C. Marone, Variations in rupture process with recurrence interval in a repeated small earthquake, Nature, 368 (1994), 624-626.

39
Ward, S. N., A multidisciplinary approach to seismic hazard in southern California, Bull. Seis. Soc. Am., in press, 1994.

40
Wesnousky, S. G., Earthquakes, Quaternary faults and seismic hazard in California, J. Geophys. Res., 91 (1986), 12587-12632.

41
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1988, Probabilities of large earthquakes occurring in California on the San Andreas fault, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 88-398, 62p., 1988.

42
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1990, Probabilities of large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region, California, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1053, 61p., 1990.

43
Wyss, M., Evaluation of proposed earthquake precursors, Geophys. Mongr. Am. Geophys. Union, pp. 94. Washington, D.C., 1991.


U.S. National Report to IUGG, 1991-1994
Rev. Geophys. Vol. 33 Suppl., © 1995 American Geophysical Union