Understanding and predicting ENSO

D.S. Battisti and E.S. Sarachik

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle

• Introduction
• Observing ENSO
• Advances in the Theory and Modeling of ENSO
  • The Physics of ENSO
  • Irregularity of ENSO
    • Internal noise.
    • Nonlinearity.
    • External forcing and decadal-to-century variability of ENSO.
  • Seasonal Cycle and ENSO
    • The general circulation models.
    • Interactions between ENSO and the seasonal cycle.
  • Optimal Growth, ENSO Prediction and ENSO Physics
• Predicting ENSO
  • Predictions of ENSO
  • TOGA Program on Prediction (T-POP)
• Applications of ENSO Predictions
  • Fisheries
  • Peru
  • Brazil
  • The United States
  • Australia
• The Next Four Years
• References