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Toward Probabilistic River Stage Forecasts

The next research phase will concentrate on the development of a hydrologic-statistical forecasting system that will transform the probabilistic QPF for a river basin, or its subbasins, into a probabilistic river stage forecast for a station at the basin outlet. The third research phase will focus on the design of a flood warning decision system for a local NWS office. The purpose of the system will be to provide optimal rules for deciding flood watches and warnings based on probabilistic river stage forecasts. Altogether, the three components will form an integrated probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting system [ Krzysztofowicz, 1993b].



U.S. National Report to IUGG, 1991-1994
Rev. Geophys. Vol. 33 Suppl., © 1995 American Geophysical Union