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Toward Better Decisions

The Bayesian theory of flood warning systems awaits further research in three directions: (1) Development of a detailed model and assessment method that would permit one to estimate the disutility function for a community based on survey data; (2) development of comprehensive case studies that would offer guideposts for real-world implementation in design, operation, performance evaluation, and benefit-cost analyses; (3) extension of the theory to probabilistic river stage forecasts that will be available in the future.



U.S. National Report to IUGG, 1991-1994
Rev. Geophys. Vol. 33 Suppl., © 1995 American Geophysical Union