The past four years have seen an increased emphasis in scientific
campaigns involving model comparisons with multi-day to
month-long observations in such efforts as the SUNDIAL and
LTCS investigations within the NSF CEDAR (Coupling of Energetics
and Dynamics in Atmospheric Regions) program. The past years have also
seen increased sophistication in numerical modeling and significant
advances in empirically documenting magnetic storm effects in
the ionosphere. There have also been successful new efforts to
understand and define the lower ionospheric domain where
traditional descriptions of E-,
-, and
- layers do not always conform
to observations and where intermediate and descending layers
frequently appear to be the rule rather than the exception.
The trend toward developing climatological and weather specifications of the ionosphere brings with it the need to understand and accurately model both quiet and disturbed conditions. This is based on the premise that the fundamental forces are identical in both cases. The difference is a matter of degree, and the ultimate manifestations of disturbed states are dependent on the forces of perturbation and the prevailing conditions of the quiet ionosphere at storm onset. This assumes that a ``quiet'' state indeed exists, which is a question that has never been addressed. In this view, the climatology of the assumed quiet state should be compared with day-to-day variabilities as a basis for identifying the controlling forces. This is the task of first-principle modellers and the observational community.
The difficulty, and indeed the challenge, is to develop a sufficiently complete database that limits the parametric freedoms within the models and enforces unique solutions. For there to be a quantitative specification of ionospheric weather and climatology and a movement toward accurate ionospheric predictability by the turn of the century, there is the need for the development of a database that specifies ionospheric state variables and all associated controls under quiet, moderately active, and disturbed conditions. Specifically, the database must include simultaneous specification of: (1) the heights, densities, composition and plasma temperatures of the E- and F-regions and all intermediate and descending layers; (2) the absolute level of solar radiation and associated spectral distributions; (3) the high-latitude particle fluxes and convection electric fields; (4) thermospheric winds and composition, including all tidal components; and (5) the dynamo-driven and magnetospherically-imposed electric fields. Items 2 through 5 are required to understand and predict item 1, which itself empirically specifies the sum total of all the coupling processes from the Sun to the solar-driven thermospheric tides, and serves to test and validate developing ionospheric models.