Working Draft Statement on Global Climate Change
March 1998

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are rising substantially as a consequence of human activities, primarily combustion of fossil fuels. The AGU considers anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to be affecting the earth-atmosphere energy balance and global climate at present. Continued emissions are likely to cause increases in global mean temperatures, rising sea levels, and other substantial climate changes. Uncertainties are inherent in such climate predictions, particularly relating to local effects of climate change, occurrence of extreme weather events, effects of clouds and aerosols, and unanticipated changes in oceanic circulation. Such uncertainties will persist into the foreseeable future.

The AGU emphasizes the importance of informed public debate that takes into account the extent of scientific knowledge and the implications of persistent uncertainties in considering potential actions to limit and/or to respond to climate change. To reduce uncertainties in climate predictions and thereby permit better-informed decision making on emissions limitations and other societal actions, the AGU endorses international programs of research to quantify anthropogenic influences on climate and the nature of climate system response to such influences. Despite present uncertainties, it can be stated with confidence that continued unabated emissions of carbon dioxide and other anthropogenic greenhouse gases will lead to enduring influences on climate that exceed recent historical experience. Therefore, AGU joins with other scientific organizations and internationally constituted bodies in urging all nations to promptly develop and implement strategies for substantially limiting emissions of greenhouse gases.