Students from Princeton University recently briefed Senate and House staffers on the vulnerability of the United States to natural disasters.  The focus of the briefing was the presentation of a poster that the students generated for the Congressional Natural Hazards Caucus as part of an undergraduate course.  The students each presented a different part of the research needed to complete the poster.

The final poster features a large map of the United States that superimposes the occurrence of earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, and hurricanes with population density, making it possible to identify hazard location and potential risk at a single glance. The border of the poster contains more detailed, supplemental information, including graphs illustrating the expenditure of federal dollars for disaster relief, population increase, and variations of GDP over time.
 

Caroline Carter reviews the need for a  map showing. vulnerability to natural hazards.

Disaster relief associated with hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods accounts for over 75 percent of federal emergency assistance.  Tornadoes inflict less financial damage, but are responsible for a significant number of deaths.  It was for this reason, student Caroline Carter explained, that the group chose to create a map that illustrates areas in the United States with high vulnerability to these hazards.

T.J. Pray explains how the costs of natural disasters to the government have risen over time.

Costs of natural disasters to the federal government have tripled over the past four decades.  A natural disaster will be more costly if it occurs in an area that has greater societal infrastructure, which the students determined has increased over time across the United States. Andrew Jarrett explained that the central map can be used to understand this trend in increased disaster relief expenditure: people, and therefore wealth, are continuing to collect into areas that are more prone to natural disasters.

Earthquake frequency data show that the number of earthquakes that occur in a region increases by a factor of ten for each decrease in order of magnitude on the Richter scale. Michal Orlikowski noted that this information could be used by vulnerable areas to anticipate, and therefore prepare for, future earthquakes.

As shown on the map, tornadoes occur most frequently in the central corridor of the United States, an area often appropriately referred to as “tornado alley.”  This area is not as heavily populated, and therefore the costs associated with tornadoes tend to be less those that associated with other natural disasters.  However, tornadoes are responsible for a significant percentage of deaths due to natural hazards.  Over time, tornado-associated cost and deaths have decreased. However, according to data presented by Naomi Levine, the number of F1 to F5 tornadoes, on the Fujita or F-Scale, has not changed significantly over time.  The decreased costs and deaths associated with tornadoes can possibly be attributed to improvements in forecasting, allowing for advance warning systems for the public.
 

Clint Wallace briefs House staffers on the annual costs of flood disasters on a per capita basis.

Increased understanding and preparation related to flooding events have resulted in reduced associated disaster relief spending in some regions of the United States.  According to data presented by Clint Wallace, states that have the greatest percentage of area in the 100-year floodplain of the United States do not necessarily require the greatest amount of flood-related emergency assistance.  In fact, he noted, a map showing percent of area in floodplain by state is essentially the inverse of a map showing FEMA cost per person in the floodplain.  This, perhaps, suggests that areas more prone to flooding are aware of this and have instituted better land-use policies.

The map shows the track of hurricanes over the last century and highlights areas of the United States coast that have experienced multiple hurricane landfalls. Sarah Apgar presented data showing hurricane tracks at 30-year intervals. She noted an interesting east-to-west oscillation in the path of hurricanes over three 30-year intervals, possibly occurring in response to climate oscillations. If this trend continues, a greater number of hurricanes can be expected to make landfall along the densely populated regions of the East Coast in the near future.
 

David Gail captivates an audience of House staffers.

In conclusion, David Gail noted that a quick glance at the map shows that natural hazards do not occur randomly, meaning that preparation is possible and could reduce the amount of funding needed for recovery.  He used an analogy of night and winter, noting that because it is known that it will get dark each night or cold each winter, lights or insulation are installed in preparation for these “events”.  Since it is possible to look at the map and know that certain areas of the country will experience natural disasters, why not be prepared?

During the question and answer period that followed, the students noted that their map is unique in that it represents an intersection of people and infrastructure with the occurrence of natural disasters, and provides a powerful visual aid for raising awareness. Awareness, they note, is the first step towards legislation protecting the public against natural disasters.

The students presented the poster at the upcoming AGU Spring Meeting in Washington, DC, on Thursday, May 30, at 8:30 am, in Hall D of the Washington Convention Center.
 
 

Andrew Jarrett explains the correlation between population and wealth density.

Professor Greg van der Vink presents a Princeton Geosciences T-shirt to Sharon Hays, staff director for the House Science Committee Research Subcommittee.

The crowd at the Senate Family Dining Room looks on.

US Vulnerability to Natural Disasters poster (1 MB JPEG image)
(also available as Adobe Acrobat 5.0 PDF file; 3 MB)
 

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