Abstract Themes
What is the state of the art in climate model emulation, particularly with respect to temperature, ocean heat content and land-based cryospheric mass changes?
Sterodynamic sea-level
How can high-resolution modeling and new altimeters improve representation of coastal dynamic sea level change and variability? How can observations, empirical approaches, and paleo constraints improve representation of coastal dynamic sea level change and variability, particularly at shorter timescales and in areas impacted by modes of variability like ENSO or mesoscale eddies? How can these improvements be represented in emulators?
What is the state of the art with respect to simulating glacier changes, climate-driven land water storage changes, and anthropogenic land water storage changes?
How do ice sheet-climate feedbacks and ice sheet-solid Earth feedbacks (e.g., glacio-isostatic adjustment) affect central and tail projections of future ice sheet, climate, and relative sea-level changes? What insights on these feedbacks can be gleaned from ISMIP7 simulations? What observational or paleo constraints could reduce uncertainties associated with these processes?
What progress has been made in characterizing the hazards associated with marine ice cliff instability and marine ice sheet instability, including but not limited to insights from ISMIP7? What observations or paleo constraints could reduce uncertainties associated with these processes?
What is the likelihood of AMOC reorganization or collapse, accounting for both temperature and freshwater forcing, and how would such reorganization impact sea level, either directly or via climatic effects on the cryosphere? What observational or paleo constraints could reduce uncertainties associated with AMOC?
What progress has been made in improving global-scale estimates and projections of vertical land motion on decadal to centennial timescales?
What progress has been made in global-scale estimation of storm surge and wave setup distributions and their potential changes in response to climate change?
Considering both quantifiable and deep uncertainty, how can sea-level projections be effectively synthesized and communicated in a manner that supports adaptation planning? What has worked and what hasn’t worked about the approach taken by AR6?
How can insights from the discussions above be implemented in multi-probabilistic sea-level rise projection frameworks? What is the role of emulation? How can observations of the sea-level budget be blended with model-driven projections of future sea-level drivers?
How much current sea-level change is attributable to historic emissions, and what amount of future sea-level rise is already committed as a result of those emissions? How can modeling and paleo data effectively inform estimates of sea-level commitment on different timescales and under different levels of warming? Can we simulate projected changes in response to overshoot scenarios?
Format Overview
This in-person meeting takes place Monday through Wednesday, and will consist of poster sessions, oral sessions, panels, and breakout discussions. Thursday will be an optional excursion (stay tuned for more details). A welcome reception will be held on Monday evening.